A Cook Political Report shows that the freefall President Joe Biden was in before the debate is only accelerating post-debate, as most of the battleground state are leaning Trump, with only three now in toss-up status. This follows news that both New Jersey and New York State are now considered contestable, though they still mostly lead Biden (with one New Jersey poll showing Trump slightly ahead).
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Excerpt from pjmedia.com
For months now, analysts have considered the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden a toss-up because national polling has generally shown the race to be within a couple of points. As it stands right now, Trump has a 3.3-point lead in the RealClearPolitics national average.
The Electoral College, however, is a different story. While Trump generally had the lead in the battleground states, his lead was sometimes razor-thin. For example, Trump and Biden were tied in Wisconsin before the debate. Now, Trump has a 2.2-point lead in the RCP average for the state — his highest lead during the campaign. Biden’s position has become worse all around, and a new update from the Cook Political Report is absolutely devastating for Biden.
NEW: @CookPolitical is shifting six Electoral College ratings towards Republicans.
AZ: Toss Up to Lean R
GA: Toss Up to Lean R
MN: Likely D to Lean D
#NE02: Likely D to Lean D
NH: Likely D to Lean D
NV: Toss Up to Lean RFull analysis by @amyewalter: https://t.co/hxRQunsvoD
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 9, 2024
“The notion that the presidential [race] is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate,” Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report wrote in a post on X/Twitter. “Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.”
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