A Ripple on the Lake in Michigan Could Fell Empires in Africa

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Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Florida State University, FSU Atmospheric Conditions, Tropical Cyclones Forecast Model, Jacob Castens, Department of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Cloud Interaction Tropical Cyclone,
Excerpt from phys.org
Researchers find even small disturbances can trigger catastrophic storms
Florida State University researchers have found that even the smallest changes in atmospheric conditions could trigger a hurricane, information that will help scientists understand the processes that lead to these devastating storms.
“The whole motivation for this paper was that we still don’t have that universal theoretical understanding of exactly how tropical cyclones form, and to really be able to forecast that storm-by-storm, it would help us to have that more solidly taken care of,” said Jacob Carstens, a doctoral student in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science.
The research by Carstens and Assistant Professor Allison Wing has been published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems…..
The scientists found that every simulation in latitudes between 10 and 20 degrees produced a major hurricane, even from the stable conditions under which they began the simulation. These came a few days after a vortex first emerged well above the surface and affected its surrounding environment.
They also showed the possibility of cloud interaction contributing to the development of a tropical cyclone very close to the equator, which rarely occurs in nature but has still been observed as close as 1.4 degrees north away.
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